The hidden laws of probable outcome

January 17, 2008 by pmelcher.

Is Wpn recent announcement to get rid of an undisclosed amount of people, more than half the staff, along with Drr similar decision to refocus on its marketplace somewhat related ? Is Getty images poor performance in the Wall Street stock market any indication of its lackluster performance in the image stock market ? What about Alamy seemingly unstoppable growth despite contributors discontent ? And microstock shooter deciding to drop their involvement in the subscription model because of poor revenues? What about Photoshelter lunching their 1 million dollar marketing campaign by offering a 20 % rebate ?

What is going on ?, would say an observer of this industry. Things have never been so much in turmoil in the photo agency world and it looks like it is going to rip apart. Press releases are being issued at machine gun speed with each supplier announcing a bigger searchable archive like kids in a schoolyard comparing the length of their private parts.

10 million here, 8 over there, almost 2 million in here. The funny part is most of these represent the same content. So it is not as if you would find millions of different images from one provider to the other. Alamy, for example represent some of the same people as Getty does, or Corbis. Maxx.com just announced a new royalty free portal, as well as Blend.com, while Excavator continues to do whatever they do. ImageSource, in the mean time, sells the same images at different prices depending on where you go.

Wpn is actually dropping the “number of images” race, and concentrating its efforts on assignments, a market neither Drr, Photoshelter nor Alamy can currently touch. They are also leaving the “wire service” model which is already over populated with giants like AP, Reuters, Getty, AFP and EPA. However, assignments is also where a lot of news photographers have retreated after being blocked access to the stock/spec image market by the agencies. And a few notable agencies like Black Star, Contact, VII and others are already very well established in that space. It is going to be a tricky wiggle to get in that space.

But it is indeed a move at the opposite side of Drr’s move. One concentrates its effort on single image volume stock/spec sales while the other pushes toward multi image assignment services. However, both are going towards in already crowded markets. Drr has now to convince buyers and users that it is better, or at least more relevant than Alamy, at a moment where Photoshelter is doing a similar push while slashing prices. Is this battle for market share be a downward spiraling pricing war pushing more photographers out of the industry ?

While this battle of the small medium size is raging, things do not look so bright at the top. Wall Street has lost faith in the stock photo industry, as the stock prices from Getty and JupiterImages have shown us. And even as both Getty and Jupiter own two of the top microstock distributor, Istockphoto and Stckxchng. Meaning that financial analysts do not even see microstock as a savior of traditional stock. Will this force both out of this industry to concentrate on higher growth industries.Both Jupiter and Getty are certainly moving in that direction.

Microstocker are moving too. According to forums, they are organizing a boycott of the subscription model because it is not financially gratifying enough. First in the line of fire is obviously ShutterStock who only offers this model and might suffer the most from this move. But at least, amateurs and pro agree on one thing : they are not making enough money.

And then there is the pure absurd. Magnum makes a deal with OnRequest. I fell off my chair. The guys who invented assignments on spec are partners with the paid assignment kings? The company that has raises millions in funding while changing its business model every three weeks is shaking hands with the old lady of photography. I will only refer Magnum to the definitive article written about OnRequest : Read John Harrington ’s entry.

The photo industry is looking for itself and now that rules and rulers do not apply anymore, everyone seems to grab anything they can for survival. Like caught in a flood. This is no longer a revolution but a defenestration. The suits have no Excels to rely on while visionaries have their eyesights blurred. A while back, I had written about the Big Depression of 2007, mainly due to a pricing downfall. I also had written that this industry is still in its infancy. I did not expect to see such a turmoil of unexpected events at such speed. 2008 is going to be fun…hold on.

Posted in Jupiter, copyright, focus, technology, license, Midstock, getty, corbis, No sense, Search, Microstock | Print | 5 Comments »